It depends on how long you live, how your savings are invested, how your spending changes with age, how you leave work and how the rules change along the way. Most people plan for the first 10 or 15 years. A retirement starting at 65 may need to be funded for 30 years or more. Treasury's 2026 Intergenerational Report projects that the number of Australians aged 85 and over will triple over the next 40 years. That's why, at Guidance, we don't judge a retirement plan on the balance at the retirement date. We judge it on what's projected to be left at age 90.

This article is based on the Financial Autonomy podcast episode "Will Your Money Last? 5 Things Your Retirement Plan Needs To Consider"

You want to retire while you're young enough to enjoy the trips, the experiences and more time with the people you love, with enough money to afford the life you're looking forward to.

But it's hard to spend with confidence when you don't know how long the money needs to last.

Every few years, the Australian Government tries to answer a bigger version of that question. The Intergenerational Report looks 40 years ahead and works out what Australia might look like. The 2026 report, released by Treasury on 21 September, takes us all the way out to 2066.

If you're in your 50s like me, 2066 might sound like science fiction. But if you're 55 today, you'll turn 95 that year.

So let's leave the politics to others and look at what the report means for the questions people actually ask about retirement.

What age should I plan to live to for retirement?

Many retirement plans are built to last until at least 90. For someone retiring at 65, that's a planning horizon of 25 years or more.

Because plenty of people outlive the average, a plan needs to allow for that possibility.

The 2026 Intergenerational Report expects Australians to live longer, healthier lives. It also finds the population is ageing faster than projected in the previous report in 2023. One figure particularly caught my attention. Treasury expects the number of Australians aged 85 and over to triple over the next 40 years.

A plan that runs smoothly until 78 and then gets tight hasn't really worked.

If you're five years away from retirement, the decisions you're making now could still need to serve you for another 35 years.

Should I move my super to conservative when I retire?

There's no single right answer. A conservative option reduces the damage a market fall can do, but over a retirement that may last 30 years, it also raises the risk that savings don't keep up with inflation.

It's very common to reach retirement and want to play it safe. That's understandable. Without a salary, there's no income coming in to rebuild savings after a market fall. A big drop early in retirement can do lasting damage, because money is being drawn out while prices are down.

A very conservative approach carries a risk too, although it may take longer to become apparent.

Over a 30-year retirement, your savings need to keep pace with rising prices. A portfolio that's very conservative from day one may not grow enough to do that. The shortfall tends to arrive in your 80s, when there are fewer ways to fix it.

We need to account for market falls and the effect of inflation when deciding how your retirement savings are invested.

There are also more products being developed to help with this. Lifetime annuities, which pay a set income for as long as you live (some are indexed to inflation), are likely to come up more often in retirement planning conversations.

Will I spend less in retirement?

Usually, but not in a straight line. Spending is often highest in the early years of retirement, eases off through the middle, and can rise again late in life when care costs come in.

In the early years, you might be travelling, eating out, replacing the car or finally doing that renovation. Spending tends to settle as you slow down, but it may rise again later if you need care. Financial planning researcher David Blanchett called this pattern the "retirement spending smile" in the Journal of Financial Planning in 2014.

The Intergenerational Report points the same way at a national level. With many more very old Australians, it expects greater demand for health and aged-care services. Treasury projects government payments will rise to 27.7% of GDP over the next 40 years, with population ageing a major contributor.

Alongside working out whether you can afford to retire, I'd encourage you to think about what you'd like your money to make possible at 85 or 90.

For many people, that includes being able to pay for extra care in their own home.

That's why our long-term projections look at assets at age 90, rather than judging the plan by the balance at 65 or 75.

Should I work part time in retirement?

That's a lifestyle choice as much as a financial one. Financially, income earned in the early years of retirement is money that doesn't have to come out of savings, which gives super more time to grow.

Retirement increasingly involves a gradual reduction in work. Instead of working full time on Friday and being retired on Monday, more people ease out through part-time work, consulting or another form of paid work.

Treasury expects this trend to continue. The 2026 report projects workforce participation will rise, particularly among women and older Australians, peaking at 67.7% in 2039-40.

Take someone who earns $20,000 or $30,000 a year for the first few years after leaving full-time work. That's $20,000 or $30,000 a year that doesn't need to be drawn from their investments. And the money left invested has longer to grow.

Whether you keep working should come down to having choices, which is what I mean by financial autonomy.

But a gradual exit can give far more flexibility than aiming for a set super balance by a set date.

Will super rules change before I retire?

Almost certainly, in some way. The Intergenerational Report suggests more changes to tax and super will be needed in the decades ahead.

The report talks directly about fairness between generations. Younger Australians are finding it harder to buy a home, while an ageing population puts more demand on health and aged care. Those pressures will influence future policy decisions.

We've already seen recent changes to super and to property tax settings. (I've written separately about the CGT changes coming in 2027.) I wouldn't build a plan on the assumption that today's rules will stay the same until 2066.

The report also gives us reasons to be optimistic. Treasury projects Australia's real economy will be more than twice its current size by 2065-66, with real income per person up 55%. Part of that rests on AI lifting productivity. Treasury assumes labour productivity growth of 1.2% a year, which is an assumption, not a promise. It would be fantastic if the AI era turned out to be a golden age for prosperity.

So, will my money last?

Reading the 2026 Intergenerational Report reinforced my view that retirement planning needs to look much further ahead than most people think.

You're planning for an Australia with far more people in their 80s and 90s, greater demand for care, different patterns of work, new technologies and, almost certainly, different tax and super rules.

We can't predict all those changes. What we can do is build enough flexibility into your plan to adapt as Australia changes over the years to 2066.

When you review your retirement plan, consider these questions:

Does your plan look 30-plus years ahead, or does it stop at your retirement date?
Is your super balancing both risks, or only the one that feels urgent today?
What would you want your money to make possible at 85 or 90?
Could the way you leave work give you more options than a single retirement date?
If the super or tax rules changed, how much would your plan need to change?

Want to feel more confident about your retirement?

When can you afford to stop working, how much could you comfortably spend, and will your money last? Guidance Financial Services can help you put the numbers around the retirement you want, so you can make decisions with greater confidence.

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Paul Benson is a retirement planning expert at Guidance Financial Services, helping Australians live the retirement they want. He hosts the Financial Autonomy podcast.

This article is for educational purposes only and does not take into account your individual circumstances. If you would like tailored advice, we can help you work through the numbers properly.